It’s already been a Premier League season that has already been packed with goals. From Turf Moor to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, defences have been plundered with alarming regularity for more conservative managers and with glee for more expansive coaches.
With most sides among the goals, however, which strikers are looking most likely to bag the Premier League Golden Boot? Let’s first take a look at the current top scorers.
Premier League Top Scorers 2020/21 Season So Far:
Heung-Min Son (Tottenham Hotspur) – 8 goals
Jamie Vardy (Leicester City) – 8 goals
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton) – 8
Mo Salah (Liverpool) – 8 goals
Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur) – 7 goals
Patrick Bamford (Leeds United) – 7 goals
Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) – 6 goals
Callum Wilson (Newcastle United) – 6 goals
Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) – 5 goals
Danny Ings (Southampton) – 5 goals
Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace) – 5 goals
The Market Favourites
You probably won’t be too shocked to learn that Tottenham’s Harry Kane (4/1) and Liverpool’s Mo Salah (4/1) are co-favourites, especially since both men take their team’s respective penalties. Leicester’s Jamie Vardy (6/1) is on spot kick duty for The Foxes, too, and in this age of VAR, it makes sense that you go with your chosen player if they’re a penalty taker and avoid if they aren’t.
On that basis, all three men are rightly out in front in the betting market and it’s our strongest suspicion that each player will top 20 goals this EPL campaign with the current rate of penalties being awarded. Vardy alone has taken six (scoring five) while Leicester City as a team have been awarded eight penalties in as many games. Last year, it took Manchester United 16 games to reach the awarding of eight penalties and that was a new record. It’s that big an influence on the betting market.
Of the trio, it’s hard to see Liverpool getting quite as many penalties as they did last year just because teams are often extremely wary of reigning champions and less likely to go flying into challenges. Vardy only has one more goal than Kane even after many more penalties, so we’ll tip the current England captain to reclaim his Golden Boot at this stage. Vardy, however, will push him very close if he can stay fit.
The Main Challengers
It won’t shock you to learn that Dominic Calvert-Lewin (10/1), Timo Werner (12/1) and Heung-Min (12/1) are currently the three players closest to the favourites. Of the trio, however, which striker makes better betting sense to invest in?
Looking at the current goals, Son leads the way, having scored eight for Tottenham, one more even than his White Hart Lane cohort Harry Kane. As we’ve already discussed, however, Kane is on penalties, and even if Kane were to be injured and that duty was passed to the South Korean, the number of goalscoring opportunities presented to Son would drop purely because of the loss of Kane in the team. As such, it makes little sense backing the 28-year-old, despite his current lead.
Timo Werner has scored four goals so far, but his shot accuracy is was down at 60%, lower than Son (79%) and Calvert-Lewin (64), despite playing for Chelsea. The highest shot accuracy rate so far is Jamie Vardy, with a whopping 86%.
Werner’s profligacy and the fact that he shares striking duties with Tammy Abraham and Olivier Giroud puts us off the German, despite his obvious natural goalscoring ability. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is just 23 and at the perfect age to be top scorer as he’ll turn 24 in March. Previous 24-year-old Golden Boot winners at World Cups include both of the last two (James Rodriguez and Harry Kane) and we think Calvert-Lewin will be The Toffees focal point all season, even with the return of Richarlison. At 10/1, he’s a terrific bet to sweat until the last minute of the final game.
An Outside Bet to Gamble On
While it would be churlish to ignore the talents of Danny Ings (80/1) and Sergio Aguero (66/1) for instance, injury could put paid to both those star players’ hopes. Despite only scoring three times so far, Liverpool’s Diogo Jota has scored a goal every 102 minutes and looks raring to go in The Reds’ title-shooting side. Jota is unerringly accurate and seems to be ahead of Roberto Firmino in the pecking order. There’s certainly no way he should be as long as 100/1 via Betway to be top goalscorer in the English Premier League, btu get on quick, because he plays Leicester City next and with several defensive injuries, even if The Foxes can win, Jota looks likely to get plenty of chances to improve his tally.
To summarise the Golden Boot betting market as it currently stands, take Harry Kane at 4/1, Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 10/1 and a nibble on Diogo Jota at 100/1. We’ll come back to these odds in a few weeks’ time right here on Calvin Ayre.
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